NyanokLembe manyen ma jukoro i nindo 22 mi dwi mir abungwen: China's monoethylene glycol (MEG) market udaru tuc i rwom ma malu i ngei ma “Golden September” peak season ubedo mbe ku genogen. Wel mi tic pa polyester piny udok piny ni 74.2%, ku rwom ma malu mi tic i thenge moko calu filament yarn. Jam tic ma tiyo ku ethylene man coal-to-MEG ucaku kendu i dul, ma utingo piny ma jucwalo. Kabedo madongo mi East China uthum 8-week consecutive destocking streak man gi ketho piny migi mir acel ma nok. Kontrak madit pa MEG uthum piny 3% piny in ceng eca, ku winjiri madit mi soko nia yub mi gwoko piny ma jucwalo bi caku i Q4, ma bi ketho rwom ma piny pa wel piny.

Neno wi sokoI nindo 22 mi dwi mir abungwen, soko mi MEG mi China unyutho aloka loka madit. Calu geopolitical risk premiums umediri ka rweny man "medu pa piny, podho pa yeny" ma nyayu apoka poka ikind piny ma pire tek, MEG futures contract ubedo piny i kind kare mi tic man uthum 3% piny, ma uketho piny ma judwoko piny i yenga aryo mukadho. Ka lworo piny udok piny: bei piny i East China udok piny, juruwil unyutho miti madit mi ketho wil, man juruwil piny gi ketho wil ma nok kende pi yeny ma tek, ma weko nen pa wil ubedo ma ling.

Thenge mi piny: Dwoko piny ma rwinyo i tic ku piny ma jucwalo, piny ma jucwalo kud i ngom mawoko nokMedu pa piny ma jucwalo ubedo piny madit ma ukelo aloka loka pa piny ma jucwalo. Ethylene-based MEG units, ma jukonyo ku ethylene ma rwinyo man dwoko piny ma jutiyo kudu, ukwo ku rwom ma malu mi tic ma kadhu 82%, ku pol pa kabedo madongo ma tiyo ku kero migi zo. Pi coal-to-MEG units, kabedo madwong i Northwest man North China ma juketho pi rwinyo man gwoko gi ucaku kendu ikind dwi mir abongwen, ma ukelo dwoko piny ma tiyo ku coal. Wel mi tic pa MEG mi ngom zoo umedire ku 4 percentage points yenga ku yenga, man piny ma jucwalo i kind yenga umedire lee.

I thenge mi kelo piny kud i ngom mange, bino pa piny ma jucwalo i dhu nam mi East China udong piny pi gwoko piny ma woko, rwinyo pa cwalo piny man aloka loka pa piny ma jucwalo kud i ngom mange, ku wel pa piny ma jucwalo kud i ngom mange ma piny ku 8% yenga ku yenga. Ento, piny ma wok kud i ngom ma medu uketho apoka poka mi piny ma jucwalo kud i ngom mange, ma ukelo dongo pa piny ma jucwalo kud i ngom. Jam tic mapol ma tiyu ku makaa juyike ni medere ku kero migi zo ma podi dwi mir apar utimiri ngo, ma bi medo kero pa piny ma jucwalo.

Thenge mi yeny: Lembe ma jukuro ikum kare mi tic ma rwinyo, lembe ma rac unyai i kind dhanuPeko mi yeny umedire, man kare macon mi "Golden September, Silver October" kare mi tic ku piny ubedo tek. Wel mi tic pa polyester upoto piny ni 74.2%, piny ma piny uloyu ma nja i kare eni man piny ma piny uloyu i kare mi yom pa Spring Festival. Ku dul, polyester filament yarn unwangu rwinyo madit uloyu i tic, ma unyai pi lwongo ma nok mi cwalo piny woko pi bongo man kendi man yeny ma nok mi ngom. Staple fiber man bottle-grade polyester gibedo ma tek ento de gidwoko piny ma jucwalo piny i rwom matung tung.

Lembe ma rac umediri ni nyai ikind ju ma timo tic: ju ma tiyo ku bongo ma rangi migi nya nya man gibe temo ni medo wel mi tic, ma uketho ju ma yiku polyester gibedo ku rwom ma malu mi piny ma gicoko man dwoko piny wel mi tic. Polyester enterprises kawoni gitiye ku yore mi "wil piny ma juyenyo, gwoko piny ma jutiyo kudu" ma gwoko piny ma jutiyo kudu pi MEG i piny ma piny pi nindu 10-12 manangu gimito ngo ni dwoko piny ma jutiyo kudu. Eni jwigo tic pa MEG, man rwom pa yeny moko ope ma jukuro i kare manok.

Lokruok pa piny ma jucwalo: East China Ports uthum 8-week destocking, piny ma jucwalo ungoloDongo pa piny ma jucwalo uketho cing ikum rwom pa piny ma jucwalo ku piny ma jucwalo. I yenga maeni, MEG stocks i port madongo mi East China uthum 8-week consecutive destocking trend man uketho rwom ma piny, ma umedire ku 20,000 tonnes yenga ku yenga. Kadi bende piny ma jucwalo i nam utiye piny ka juporo ku kare marom i oro ma ukadhu, ma mio kony moko pi bei piny, wok pa rwom mi gedo nyutho nia soko uloko kud i "tight balance" ni "loosening expectation" regime.

Ikinde marom, wel mi port pickup yenga ku yenga udok piny yenga ku yenga, ma nyutho miti ma nok mi wilo piny kud i polyester mills man rwom ma piny mi wil ma rwinyo. Calu piny ma jucwalo kud i ngom ubemedere ameda man ju ma jucwalo kud i ngom mange jubekuro ni dwoko piny i Q4, soko ubemito nia piny ma jucwalo i nam bimondo i rwom ma malu.

Bei & Margins: Diverging Profitability Across Routes, Supply Elasticity UnfoldsPoko bero ikind yore mi yubu piny de ube loko rwom pa dongo pa piny ma jucwalo. Pi ethylene-based MEG, rwinyo pa bei pa ethylene i ng'om zoo udwoko piny peko mi bey man udwoko piny ma jutiyo kudu, ma uketho ju ma timo piny ubedo ku miti madit. Pi coal-to-MEG, bei pa thermal coal mi ng'om ubedo marom, man dwoko piny pa bei pa MEG uketho rwinyo pa coal-based units udoko nok, ma ukelo dwoko piny man uketho supply-side elasticity. Dwoko piny pa kony mi wel piny de oyabu kabedo mi rwinyo piny pi bei pa MEG.

Outlook & Procurement AdviceKa waneno anyim i Q4, MEG inventory build trend ubedo piny ma dhanu zo ungiyo ikind piny ma jucwalo man piny ma dhanu mitu, ma uketho wel piny ubedo piny. I kare ma nok, piny ma nok ma jucwalo i port bi mio kony moko pi bei piny, man soko copo timo kuloka i rwom ma yot. I kind kare ma nok, calu ma rwom pa piny ube medere, wel piny bibedo i peko.

Pi juwil piny B2B man juwil piny, wabewecu iri ni ketho wil ma rwom pare lapiny ire man ni bedo moth i yubu piny madwong. Ber ni lubo tok lembe pa piny ma jucwalo kubang yenga man wel pa polyester ma jutiyo kudu, man ni dwoko piny i dul ingey piny ma jucwalo udaru nwangire man bei upodhu piny. Pi lembariba ma rii pi kare malac, yore mi bei piny ma juweco pire i anyim copo bedu maber pi gwoko bei piny.